Quantum buyers demand proof as budgets face scrutiny

QuEra Computing's latest quantum market survey shows organisations tightening spending and procurement around proof of value, pointing to a more cautious phase for a sector that has attracted heavy public and private interest.

The company's 2026 Quantum Readiness Report found that 46% of organisations expect their quantum budgets to remain flat, 44% expect increases and 10% expect decreases. Based on responses from 291 stakeholders across more than 25 countries, the results suggest investment is holding up but facing closer scrutiny.

That shift is also evident in purchasing decisions. In a crowded market, buyers are placing greater weight on evidence, long-term viability and scientific credibility when assessing suppliers.

"Buyers want proof, not glossy brochures," said Yuval Boger, chief commercial officer at QuEra Computing.

The survey suggests earlier fears of missing out are fading, particularly among more advanced organisations. Respondents with greater quantum maturity increasingly cited the "classical wall", where conventional computing struggles with harder workloads, as the main reason to keep investing.

By contrast, only 9% named successful pilot results as the main driver of higher spending. That points to a market that still sees promise in the technology but has yet to move into broad commercial deployment.

Budget pressure

Senior executives also appear less upbeat than technical teams about near-term budget growth. Decision-makers in the C-suite were more cautious than junior researchers and practitioners, reflecting the higher bar now being applied to capital spending.

As a result, internal advocates for quantum projects are likely to face more detailed questions about return on investment, delivery timelines and supplier resilience. The report argues that enthusiasm alone is no longer enough to secure funding.

Boger described the change as a move from experimentation to tighter financial discipline. "Organisations are moving from early experimentation to disciplined investment decisions, where budgets are scrutinized, use cases must be justified, and procurement plays a central role," he said.

The survey paints a market in which competition among vendors is no longer driven mainly by technical promise. Buyers are also weighing whether providers have the funding and scientific progress to remain credible over the longer term.

"With nearly 100 quantum companies competing today, executives are asking two questions before they commit," Boger said. "Who has the funding to be here for the long haul, and who has clear scientific proof that their approach works and a credible path to larger machines that deliver real enterprise value?"

Public money

Government support remains central to the sector's economics. Among respondents, 28% said government mandates and grant availability were the main reasons for budget increases, making public funding the biggest single driver of additional spending.

That matters because much of the industry remains pre-commercial. Private investment may still support research and early systems, but the report suggests the public sector continues to absorb a large share of the risk while the business case for wider private deployment develops.

Respondents also identified government and defence as the most likely area to lead quantum commercialisation in the next three years, cited by 24%. Large enterprises followed at 20%, while pharmaceuticals and life sciences came in at 11%.

Financial services, once widely discussed as an early beneficiary of quantum computing, ranked last at 5%. The findings suggest many firms in that sector are waiting for more mature and fault-tolerant systems before committing at scale.

Sovereignty concerns

The survey found that sovereignty has become a mainstream procurement issue. Some 62% of organisations said they actively factor it into purchasing decisions, while only 5% said it does not matter at all.

This points to a more regionally segmented market. Organisations in the United States tend to favour performance-led global sourcing, while those in the European Union place more emphasis on sovereignty, supply-chain resilience and local technology development.

For suppliers, that means a single international sales approach may be less effective than country- or region-specific strategies. The report presents this as one of the clearest dividing lines in the market.

Skills shortage

The findings also highlight a labour constraint. A shortage of specialised workers was cited by 37% of respondents, making it the fourth-largest barrier to adoption, ahead of limited hardware access and immature algorithms.

The pressure is particularly strong in quantum error correction, where the number of qualified specialists remains small. Academic institutions reported workforce shortages more often than technology providers, suggesting universities are struggling to retain talent amid competition from private companies and national laboratories.

Taken together, the data depicts a quantum industry that still expects funding to hold steady, but under more exacting conditions. The strongest signal in the report is not retreat, but rising demand for harder evidence from buyers, executives and public backers alike.

The survey gathered responses from stakeholders in academia, industry, government and technology providers across more than 25 countries.