Singapore investors bullish on markets, wary at home

More than half of retail investors in Singapore expect the current global bull market to extend into next year, even as their confidence in the local economy, job security and personal finances weakens, according to new survey data from trading and investing platform eToro.

The latest quarterly Retail Investor Beat survey found that 54% of Singapore respondents anticipate the market rally will continue. The study polled 11,000 retail investors worldwide, including 1,000 in Singapore.

Two-thirds of Singapore retail investors, or 66%, said they feel confident about their investment portfolios. That marked a five percentage point drop from the previous quarter.

Sentiment around the domestic backdrop has deteriorated more sharply. Confidence in the local economy fell from 77% in the third quarter to 70% in the fourth. Confidence in job security dropped from 67% to 59% over the same period. Confidence in cost-of-living standards declined from 65% to 58%.

Only 44% of local retail investors said they are on track to achieve their primary investment goals, down from 53% last quarter. Overall confidence in investments fell from 71% to 66% in the fourth quarter.

Market Analyst Zavier Wong at eToro said the data points to a split between views of markets and daily life in Singapore.

"There's a hint of uncertainty lingering in Singapore. You can see it in hiring, in how people talk about job security, and even in day-to-day costs. So while the global market outlook looks encouraging, the lived reality at home hasn't caught up. And that shapes how confident people feel about hitting their own goals. It's not that people here lack optimism, but they are just being practical - balancing what they see in their daily lives with what they feel in their wallets," said Wong.

The survey defined retail investors as individuals who are self-directed or advised and hold at least one investment product, such as shares, bonds, or funds. Respondents did not need to be eToro customers.

External risks

Singapore respondents highlighted external rather than domestic factors as the main threats to the bull market outlook for 2026. Slowing economic growth or a recession was cited by 47% of investors. The same proportion pointed to political uncertainty as a top risk.

Geopolitical instability or war ranked next, mentioned by 43% of respondents. High market valuations or asset bubbles followed at 34%. Global supply chain disruptions or commodity shocks were named by 32% of investors.

Persistent or resurging inflation concerned 31% of respondents. Interest rate hikes or tighter monetary policy worried 28%. Weakening consumer demand was cited by 24%.

Wong said the results reflect Singapore's exposure to global developments.

"It's interesting to see how the biggest investor worries here aren't even local at all. Singapore, being a small and open economy, relies heavily on what happens beyond our borders. It's sort of a bellwether for what might happen at home. So when investors here see political tensions rising abroad or signs that the global economy is losing steam, they naturally pay more attention."

"Even with markets holding up, there's still a sense that any shift overseas can filter through to us quite quickly. So, the caution we're seeing isn't all that surprising, but rather just Singaporeans staying mindful of how connected we are," said Wong.

Rate expectations

Interest rate expectations for 2026 appear mixed but lean towards cuts. The survey found that 46% of Singapore retail investors expect interest rates to decrease next year. About one in four, or 27%, expect rates to rise.

Among those who foresee a decrease, 20% expect a slight reduction of less than 0.25 percentage points. A further 23% anticipate a moderate cut between 0.25 and 0.75 percentage points. Only 3% predict a dramatic fall of more than 0.75 percentage points.

On the upside, 2% of respondents expect rates to increase dramatically by more than 0.75 percentage points. A further 10% forecast a moderate rise of between 0.25 and 0.75 percentage points. Another 15% expect a slight increase of less than 0.25 percentage points.

Some investors see little change ahead, with 17% expecting rates to remain about the same.

Wong said investors in Singapore are watching the interest rate outlook closely.

"Most investors here believe rates will start to come down next year, but they're not expecting anything too dramatic. Even a small drop can help ease pressures from mortgage repayments and bank financing costs, so there's a sense of quiet relief."

"At the same time, there are some who think rates could stay where they are or maybe just tick up a little. It shows that local retail investors are hopeful but also realistic with their expectations. The past two years have shown how blurry signals can get, and that's probably why nobody wants to assume things will just fall neatly into place," said Wong.

eToro said it will continue to track sentiment among Singapore retail investors in future editions of its Retail Investor Beat survey as markets move into 2026.