%201.webp)
Gartner's prediction that public relations (PR) and earned-media budgets will double by 2027 comes as research highlights editorial coverage's role in AI-generated answers. However, while studies show that AI platforms frequently cite earned media, they do not establish whether these patterns will translate into the spending increase forecast by the research firm.
The prediction appears in Gartner's Top Predictions to Inform 2026 Comms Strategies. The firm argues that wider adoption of public large language models (LLMs) as alternatives to traditional search engines will increase demand for earned media.
Gartner says AI answer engines favour earned, shared and organic owned content over paid placements. It cites a vendor study that found more than 95% of links cited by AI tools were non-paid, with 27% originating directly from earned media.
These figures suggest that paid advertising alone may not secure visibility in AI-generated answers. However, non-paid citations do not necessarily represent journalism or prove that companies will need to double their PR budgets.
Citation patterns
Research from media intelligence company Muck Rack provides further insight into the sources AI platforms use.
Its May 2026 What Is AI Reading? study analysed more than 25 million links cited by ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini across 17 industries. Earned media accounted for 84% of citations, while journalism represented 27%. Paid and advertorial content accounted for 0.3%.
The 84% figure includes academic research, government sources, encyclopaedic websites and other third-party content, not just journalism.
Muck Rack reported similar findings across three editions of its research since July 2025. Earned media accounted for 82% to 89% of citations, while journalism represented 25% to 27%.
Industry trend queries generated journalism citations at more than twice the rate of how-to questions. Press releases appeared almost exclusively in responses to industry trend queries and at 3.5 times the rate recorded for best-of questions.
The findings indicate that editorial coverage can contribute to the information AI systems use to answer questions. They do not establish that additional media coverage will guarantee a company appears in AI-generated answers or that greater visibility will increase revenue.
Muck Rack provides media intelligence and AI visibility services to communications teams, a commercial interest to consider when interpreting its findings.
Search shift
Gartner's traffic figures point to changing search behaviour. Between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, ChatGPT traffic increased by 608% year on year, while Perplexity traffic rose by 262%. Google and Bing traffic each declined by 1%.
Traditional search engines nevertheless retained a traffic advantage, according to Gartner. The figures show growth in visits to AI platforms but do not establish that users have broadly abandoned conventional search.
AI-generated answers synthesise information from multiple sources rather than simply present a list of links. Gartner argues that communications teams must consider how their organisations appear in these answers and whether AI systems treat their coverage as authoritative.
Sources vary by industry but can include news outlets, government and non-governmental organisations, encyclopaedic websites and academic research. Gartner also notes that press releases tend to receive fewer citations than other sources.
News coverage becomes more prominent when users ask for recent information. Gartner cites research finding that news accounted for almost half of citations in queries about recent developments. Current editorial coverage may therefore help organisations remain visible in AI-generated answers, although its effect on business outcomes remains unclear.
Budget outlook
Gartner's prediction builds on earlier evidence that communications leaders were already considering increases in PR spending.
Research conducted in late 2024 found that 36% of chief communications officers expected to increase PR budgets in 2025. Corporate brand spending followed at 34%, while 26% and 23% of respondents identified public websites and external social media, respectively.
These figures show that communications leaders already anticipated higher spending on PR. However, they reflect expectations for 2025 and do not demonstrate that budgets have doubled or are on track to double by 2027.
The evidence measures different aspects of the communications landscape. Traffic figures track visits to AI platforms, while citation studies examine the sources used in generated answers. Neither directly measures changes in PR spending.
Gartner argues that organisations may need to shift some spending from paid media towards owned and earned media to improve their visibility in AI search. It recommends that communications teams benchmark the sources cited by AI tools, monitor how their organisations are represented and develop ways to measure the impact of earned coverage.
Muck Rack's study also found differences in how AI platforms cite sources. ChatGPT cited sources in 96% of responses, averaging five citations per answer. Gemini cited sources in 82% of responses, averaging eight, while Claude included citations in 55% of responses, averaging 13 when it did.
These differences suggest that communications teams may need to account for how individual AI platforms source information rather than rely on a single visibility strategy.
Media visibility
Muck Rack's analysis found that journalism citations were spread across more than 20,000 outlets. Axios appeared among ChatGPT's three most cited domains across 13 of the 17 industries studied. Neither The New York Times nor Reuters ranked among the top three domains for any industry.
Article age also influenced citation patterns. More than half of journalism citations came from articles published within the previous 12 months, with citation volumes declining sharply after the first six months.
Muck Rack Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Greg Galant said the findings highlighted the role of earned coverage in AI visibility.
"Three editions in, the data keeps telling the same story: earned media is what AI trusts. For communications teams, that is validation that the work they do to earn coverage in the right outlets has real consequences beyond traditional metrics," Galant said.
The research shows that earned media features prominently in the examined AI-generated answers. It supports the view that communications teams may need to consider how AI systems source information when planning their media strategies.
However, whether these changes will lead to the twofold increase in PR and earned-media budgets predicted by Gartner remains uncertain. Establishing that link would require evidence of actual spending trends, not just citation patterns and AI traffic growth.